Monday, April 27, 2009

With a Kissinger goodbye, Rudd ends his US visit

KEVIN Rudd, whose critique of neoliberal capitalism was a show stopper for the cognoscenti, looked at home on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, as he waved cheerily to the travelling media in the gallery above.

Certainly when he dined with the exchange's board, he didn't feel this was the time or place to reprise the harsher lines of his essay in The Monthly. Asked by the travelling hacks whether he had shared his thoughts while he dined, he deftly said he'd talked about the need for better regulation of global financial markets.

While her husband was chatting with the rich — albeit less rich than they once were — wife Therese Rein went to a project for poor children in Harlem. They were seeing in a joint glance the two vastly contrasting faces of America.

It's an exciting time to be in the US. The Obama Administration has brought a new, dynamic atmosphere to the political debate. But of course the Administration can't erase the fear and uncertainty that the financial crisis and slumping economy have brought.

Rudd finished off his US visit among the financiers, and with chats to a couple of prestigious former politicians, one time secretary of state Henry Kissinger and former vice-president Al Gore, now the great climate change activist. Although the bad economic times are making the prospects for international progress on climate change much harder, as Rudd admits, the PM is greatly encouraged by America's new commitment to achieving something.

He departed the same day as President Obama unveiled his long awaited Afghanistan strategy, which includes more forces, greatly increased aid for Pakistan (now seen as almost a joint problem with Afghanistan) and better integration of the military and civil efforts. Rudd enthusiastically welcomed the revamped approach, especially the emphasis on training.

There was another broad hint that whatever further help Australia gives is likely to be with training. Rudd, however, again emphasised that Australia did not want to be by itself among the coalition in boosting assistance. "We need to play our part but we also need to make sure that our friends and partners in Europe are playing their part as well," he said.

The Afghan decision will await Rudd's return to Australia. His immediate concern over the next few days is the G20 meeting in London, and it remains to be seen whether the G20 leaders will sign on to the big economic stimulus with any sort of unanimity.

One of the main changes Rudd says the G20 should endorse is reform of the International Monetary Fund. The argument is that the fund must give more support to prevent the global decline worsening.

But for China to be willing to stump up more money, it needs a greater voting say in the fund, where presently it has much less clout than its contribution to the world economy entitles it to. As Rudd points out, he is hardly the only leader making this argument; indeed the Opposition has said previously that when in government it too supported more say for China. But suddenly Malcolm Turnbull is accusing Rudd of being a roving ambassador for China.

Rudd's China interests and knowledge are a plus for the PM and one of the reasons international leaders have been impressed with him. But domestically, they could turn into a problem if not managed carefully. The latest kerfuffle over Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon's friendship with Chinese-born woman Helen Liu has fuelled the issue of Rudd's China orientations, even though it has nothing to do with the PM himself.

The China issue is complicated for the Government, and not because of Rudd's perfectly sensible advocacy of more clout for China in the IMF. China is making a concerted effort to get more equity in Australian resources, which raises serious questions for resource security.

On Friday, part of a Chinese bid for more equity in Oz Minerals was rejected on national security grounds. Still to be decided is the bid for a bigger slice of Rio Tinto. The Chinese have been putting huge effort into lobbying for their case. When Rudd had a visiting senior Chinese politician to lunch recently the bid was no doubt discussed.

It is a delicate situation for the Government. There are serious reasons for saying no to the Chinese over Rio. No country should cede security over its resources, which has implications for returns and national security.

It will be interesting to see whether the Chinese use the G20 occasion for further high-level lobbying. The odds must be that they will see it as a good chance to bend the PM's ear.

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